| McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228 |
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MCCAIN-PALIN 310 OBAMA-BIDEN 228
The PUMA Factor just was not big enough to overcome all the other things going on. Believe me when I say that I wish things had turned out differently. I can live with not only being wrong, but being way off the mark. In the end, the polling companies repaired their weighting algorithms sufficiently to allow for the PUMA Factor and accurately project the winner. For my thoughts on now what, please see: The Morning After the Debacle. I am going to leave the original article up as a an example of what would have happened in a normal election based on all previous trends. It turned out that the race factor threw all previous political trends into a cocked hat. In one sense this is a good thing because we have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that our race relationships in this country have made huge gains in the last fifty years. I do not know a single person who has any problem with a black president. Their objections to Obama had strictly to do with his past associations and his record as the most left wing Senator. Unfortunately, it would appear that most voters do not understand what such a left wing President will do to this country. I hope I am wrong again, but I doubt it.
What a difference 72 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 4th and see what has changed.
Changes in the last three days have made North Carolina so safe and Iowa so far out of reach that both have been dropped both from the table, albeit for different reasons. I have added Minnesota, Michigan and Washington. Minnesota has been coming on so strong that it looks like it will go for McCain-Palin. Eight of the original states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 31,476 more to win, they only need 280,623 to tie and 30,058 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one. Ohio has dropped from 3.2 to 2.5 points while Michigan has gone up from 13.0 to 13.4 points in the averages. Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these twelve states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 907,108 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 1,280,789 PUMA's spread across twelve states to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these twelve states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid? Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin, Michigan and Washington are still too far out of reach unless a trend develops later today. What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 81 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine. What we have seen so far is just the undecided's breaking for McCain-Palin about 4 to 1. The PUMA Factor has not been felt in the polls. They have never been accounted for in those and still are not. They will make their presence felt when the votes are counted tonight. If there was no PUMA Factor, McCain would still squeak a win by carrying the FL, OH, VA, CO and the one vote from Maine. That produces a 270-268 result, which you can think of as a worst case scenario. That close an election would be troublesome, particularly if Obama-Biden carried the popular vote. It is the PUMA's who are going to turn this into a landslide in order to teach the Democratic National Committee better manners and allow them to take back the Democrat Party from the left wing extremists. If Obama wins, what chance would Hillary have after that and what chance would they have to take their party back? The media does not speak PUMA. Have you ever heard or seen it used in the media? They know there are some unhappy Hillary supporters out there, but the just assume that almost all of them will come around. The PUMA coalition is an underground movement based on the web. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions. I am informed that the word "PUMA" finally showed up on Fox News this morning. There are over 1,000 links back to my website today and one of them is from Sean Hannity's website. The word is finally beginning to seep off the web. I find it amusing that the news media is sitting on the biggest news story of this election and does not even know it. They won't believe it until they see it in the election results tonight. Then there will be a mad scramble to play catch up. For all you PUMA's out there, do not let the media get away with blaming this on racism. You can safely speak up now because the die is already cast. Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. No matter what the people say who are polled, pollsters still weight their sample to "force" it into known demographic and political patterns. That does not even begin to account for people who deliberately lie to the pollsters which PUMA's are urged to do. I would like to publicly thank all of you who have made a donation to my website that allowed me to ignore my clients and try to keep up with the response. I distributed the high estimate of 130,000,000 (the highest percentage since 1908) to each state based on its percentage of the total population. That figure has built into it plenty of room for the increased registration amongst blacks and the youth vote. I used an extremely high figure precisely because I did not want people to say that I underestimated the turnout and hence underestimated the number of PUMA's needed. What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained. Fortunately for the rest of America, there still a lot of Democrats out there whose first loyalty is to their country and not their party. Thank God for them and tell them how grateful you are when you meet one. For those who have wondered about posting dates, here is the list from Real Clear Politics:
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