| The McCain-Palin Landslide |
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THE MCCAIN-PALIN LANDSLIDE
Based on everything I have learned about predicting elections in 45 years of doing this, I predict a McCain-Palin landslide. What is the basis for making such a prediction? Under normal circumstances, you can successfully predict any given partisan election based on the previous three elections. The most recent election is weighted for 25% of the prediction, the second one back is weighted for 22.5% and the third one back is weighted for 2.5%. Then the trend towards one party, if any, is factored in for 50% of the prediction. In statewide elections or smaller, you apply this formula to each precinct and then aggregate the results. In nationwide elections, you apply the formula to each county and then aggregate them for a final prediction.
Of course, this system fails if some unusual factor changes the previous trends. The only unusual factor in this election is the race of one of the candidates. There is no way to predict how that factor will play out because there are no precedents. Assuming that the race factor has an equal number of plus and minus factors, the trends point to a McCain-Palin landslide. The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because the polls do not seem to be properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor? That article pointed out, that at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, it seemed very likely that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to see if that continued to be the case. Now the trend is confirming that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what should happen in the next election. At this point the only unpredictable factor is the matter of turnout. If Obama can turn out the minorities for him in massive numbers then all bets are off. Given normal turnout in a presidential election, McCain-Palin should win handily. UPDATE: I have posted an updated article predicting an 81 electoral vote margin for McCain-Palin called McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. Click on the link to go there. |