Elections | 2010 Elections Outlook |
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THE 2010 ELECTIONS
We project the Republicans are favored in 80 congressional races while losing 2 for a net gain of 78. This would give them a 77 seat majority and the highest in almost 100 years. For a list of the House seats in play and which way they are projected to go, see Who's Winning the House? For a by state list, see: 2010 Senate Races by State and the 2010 House Races by State. For a by probability of the seat going Republican, see: 2010 Senate Target Districts and the 2010 House Target Districts. Poll results for Senate races are in the these tables, but poll results for the House races are found at House Race Polls.
Also up for grabs are the governors of 37 states. Right now, these 37 are controlled by the Democrats 19 to 18. At the moment, we project that the margin will be 26 to 11 in favor of the Republicans. You can find the table at Who's Winning the Governors? The Democrats control the other 13 states 7 to 6. Hence the current split is 26 to 24 for the Democrats. After the election, we project a 32 to 18 split in favor of the Republicans. These races are critically important along with control of the various state legislatures considering new congressional districts need to be drawn in most states as a result of the 2010 Census. Whomever has the governorship and control of both houses of the various state legislatures can and will gerrymander those new districts to favor their own party and change political alignments for the next decade. Political Polls
All of the polls now show that the Democrats are in deep doo-doo. Obamacare still is opposed by a spread of 12% which is not a good sign when the passage of the health care bill was the Democrat's most bragged about accomplishment. The generic ballot average has improved for the Republicans because a new Gallup poll has them up by 10 points. Other polls showing the Democrats doing much better are all polls of all adults which mean nothing in politics because if you are not registered, you cannot vote. For more information on how to interpret poll results, see Understanding Polling Data which was updated on 3/28. Only LIKELY VOTER polls have any real predictive value for election results because even if you are registered, it means nothing if you do not vote. The likely voter polls average 7.3% and that average translates to giving the Republicans 242 net seats for a margin of 49 seats. Obama's approval spread is steadily improving as Rasmussen keeps showing more likely voters favoring him. The Direction of the Country table now shows that almost 61% of the people thinking we are on the wrong track and that is not a good sign for the Democrats either. |
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