THE MARSTON CHRONICLES

**Republican Fair Bets**
State	District	Incumbent Democrat	2008 Margin	McCain Margin	Obama care Vote	Took Seat	Takeover Probability
Georgia	12	John Barrow	#3.62%	-8.84%	No	2004	59.9%
Illinois	14	Bill Foster	15.50%	-11.06%	*Yes	2006	59.7%
Pennsylvania	10	Christopher P. Carney	12.66%	8.43%	Yes	2006	58.7%
Massachusetts	5	Niki Tsongas	#6.21%	-19.51%	Yes	2007	#58.5%
Massachusetts	10	Open	#12.58%	-11.27%			#58.3%
Wisconsin	8	Steve Kagen	8.10%	-8.10%	*Yes	2006	58.1%
Pennsylvania	12	Mark S. Critz	7.55%	0.31%		2010	58.0%
New Mexico	1	Martin Heinrich	11.31%	-20.43%	Yes	2008	57.8%
Virginia	11	Gerald E. Connolly	11.64%	-14.96%	*Yes	2008	57.2 %
Florida	22	Ron Klein	9.34%	-4.04%	Yes	2006	57.2%
Connecticut	4	Jim Himes	3.97%	-20.06%	Yes	2008	56.9%
New York	19	John Hall	17.35%	-2.28%	*Yes	2006	56.9%
Georgia	8	Jim Marshall	#14.49%	13.36%	No	2004	#55.1%
Minnesota	1	Tim Walz	#13.98%	-4.37%	Yes	2006	#55.1%
Ohio	18	Zack Space	19.75%	7.86%	*No	2006	54.8%
Indiana	2	Joe Donnelly	#7.95%	-9.38%	Yes	2006	#53.0%
Connecticut	5	Chris Murphy	12.93%	-13.94%	Yes	2006	#52.9%
Oregon	5	Kurt Schrader	15.92%	-10.62%	*Yes	2008	52.2%
Kentucky	6	Ben Chandler III	17.67%	12.19%	No	2004	#52.2%
Michigan	9	Gary Peters	9.45%	-12.96%	Yes	2008	51.1%
Hawaii	1	Charles K. Djou (R)	#10.26%	-42.29%		2010	#51.0%
Wisconsin	3	Ron Kind	#12.95%	-16.96%	Yes	1996	#50.9%
Virginia	9	Frederick C. Boucher	#17.57%	19.10%	No	1982	#50.7%
Pennsylvania	4	Jason Altmire	11.72%	10.45%	No	2006	50.6%
North Carolina	2	Bob Etheridge	#15.73%	-4.62%	Yes	1996	#50.5%
Colorado	7	Ed Perlmutter	#11.92%	-19.07%			#50.5%
Maine	1	Chellie Pingree	9.8%	-22.82%	Yes	2008	50.2%
Iowa	1	Bruce L. Braley	#11.85%	-17.52%	Yes	2006	#50.1%

Click on the takeover probability number to get a map and the details for that district

NOTE: The * next to a health care vote means that their yes vote on the Pelosi health care bill caused the National GOP to target the Democrat. The vote in the column represents their vote on the final Obama care bill on 3/21. The # next to the probability figure means that we are using a margin from a year other than 2008. Both 2006 and 2008 were horrible years for Republicans so when a figure from an earlier year appears more predictive of 2010, we use that figure.

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