THE MARSTON CHRONICLES

**Republican Good Bets**
State	District	Incumbent Democrat	2008 Margin	McCain Margin	Obama care Vote	Took Seat	Takeover Probability
Arizona	8	Gabrielle Giffords	11.90%	5.94%	*Yes	2006	69.9%
Washington	3	Open	#9.32%	-6.72%			#69.4%
New York	23	William L. Owens	3.11%	-5.22%	Yes	2009	69.0%
Illinois	11	Debbie Halvorson	#11.32%	-8.18%	Yes	2008	68.9 %
Arizona	5	Harry Mitchell	9.58%	4.53%	Yes	2006	68.7%
Florida	24	Suzanne Kosmas	16.09%	1.95%	Yes	2008	68.2%
New Jersey	3	John Adler	3.31%	-5.38%	No	2008	67.2%
Pennsylvania	7	Open	#12.76%	-12.64%			65.6%
Michigan	1	Open	#14.88%	-1.82%			#65.6%
North Dakota	AL	Earl R. Pomeroy, III	#15.11%	8.63%	Yes	1992	#64 .7%
Arkansas	1	Open	#20.42%	20.28%			#64.4%
Wisconsin	7	Open	#8.65%	-13.39%			#64.3%
West Virginia	1	Open	#19.35%	15.26%			#63.1%
South Carolina	5	John M. Spratt, Jr.	#13.84%	7.24%	Yes	1982	#62.9%
California	11	Gerald McNerney	10.55%	-9.33%	Yes	2006	62.6%
Florida	2	Allen Boyd	#18.97%	9.69%	Yes	1996	62.1%
New York	1	Timothy H. Bishop	16.77%	-3.82%	*Yes	2002	62.0 %
Arizona	1	Ann Kirkpatrick	16.45%	10.17%	Yes	2008	61.4%
Texas	23	Ciro Rodriguez	13.84%	-2.69%	Yes	2006	60.6%
North Carolina	8	Larry Kissell	10.76%	-5.88%	No	2008	60.4 %

Click on the takeover probability number to get a map and the details for that district

NOTE: The * next to a health care vote means that their yes vote on the Pelosi health care bill caused the National GOP to target the Democrat. The vote in the column represents their vote on the final Obama care bill on 3/21. The # next to the probability figure means that we are using a margin from a year other than 2008. Both 2006 and 2008 were horrible years for Republicans so when a figure from an earlier year appears more predictive of 2010, we use that figure.

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