marstonchronicles.info - Republican Better Bet Races

Republican Better Bet Races

**Republican Better Bets**
State	District	Incumbent Democrat	2008 Margin	McCain Margin	Obama care Vote	Took Seat	Takeover Probability
South Dakota	AL	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	#7.45%	8.41%	No	2004	#79.9%
New Hampshire	2	Open	#5.37%	-13.09%			#79.9%
Indiana	8	Open	#9.44%	3.90%			#79.7%
Texas	17	T. Chester Edwards	7.48%	35.17%	No	1990	78.8%
New York	24	Michael Arcuri	3.94%	-2.36%	*No	2006	73.9%
Colorado	4	Betsy Markey	12.39%	0.88%	Yes	2008	73.5%
Ohio	16	John A. Boccieri	10.73%	2.61%	Yes	2008	73.3%
New Mexico	2	Harry Teague	11.92%	1.33%	No	2008	73.3%
Indiana	9	Baron Hill	#4.52%	1.76%	*Yes	2006	#72.4%
Iowa	3	Leonard L. Boswell	14.25%	-9.37%	Yes	1996	72.0%
Virginia	2	Glenn Nye	4.94%	-1.96%	No	2008	70.8%

Click on the takeover probability number to get a map and the details for that district

NOTE: The * next to a health care vote means that their yes vote on the Pelosi health care bill caused the National GOP to target the Democrat. The vote in the column represents their vote on the final Obama care bill on 3/21. The # next to the probability figure means that we are using a margin from a year other than 2008. Both 2006 and 2008 were horrible years for Republicans so when a figure from an earlier year appears more predictive of 2010, we use that figure.

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