THE MARSTON CHRONICLES

**Democratic Senators up for Election in 2010**
State	Name	2004 Margin	McCain Margin	Polling Results	Took Office	Takeover Probability
North Dakota	Open	#0.73%	8.63%	Hoeven 69, Potter 25		#85.9%
Arkansas	Blanche Lincoln	#7.79%	19.86%	Boozman 65, Lincoln 27		#72.0%
Indiana	Open	#4.29%	-1.03%	Coats 50, Ellsworth 29		#67.7%
Delaware	Open	#1.38%	-25.00%	Castle 48 , Coons 35		#65.4%
Colorado	Michael Bennet	#4.77%	-8.95%	Buck 49, Bennet 45	2009	#63.5%
Pennsylvania	Open	5.24%	-10.35%	Toomey 48, Sestak 42		61.6%
Wisconsin	Russ Feingold	11.24%	-13.91%	Johnson 47, Feingold 46	1992	54.6%
Nevada	Harry Reid	#5.48%	-12.49%	Reid 45, Angle 44	1986	#54.3%
Washington	Patty Murray	12.24%	-17.17%	Rossi 52, Murray 45	1992	52.2%
California	Barbara Boxer	#10.05%	-24.06%	Boxer 49, Fiorina 44	1992	#46.9%
Illinois	Open	#10.21%	-25.14%	Giannoulias 45, Kirk 45		#46.3%
Connecticut	Open	#13.43%	-22.37%	Blumenthal 47, McMahon 40		#43.5%
West Virginia	Open	#26.22%	13.12%	Manchin 48, Raese 42		#28.9%
New York	Kirsten Gillibrand	#13.74%	-26.87%	Gillibrand 43, DioGuardi 28	2009	#23.1%
Oregon	Ron Wyden	#27.26%	-16.34%	Wyden 56, Huffman 36	1996	#13.3%
Maryland	Barbara Mikulski	31.06%	-25.45%	Mikulski 55, Wargotz 39	1986	-23.8%
New York	Chuck Schumer	42.32%	-26.87%	Schumer 54, Berntsen 35	1998	-189.1%
Vermont	Patrick Leahy	46.10%	-37.02%	Leahy 64, Britton 29	1974	-284.4%
Hawaii	Daniel Inouye	54.52%	-45.62%	Inouye 68, Roco 20	1962	-577.8%

NOTE: The # next to figures means that the margin and probabilities are based on other elections which would be similar to the current one. This is caused by the fact that the present incumbent has not run for election previously or an incumbent is in enough trouble according to recent polls that the most recent election is not a valid indicator and an earlier election result must be used.

The Republicans are handicapped in the U. S. Senate races because only 18 Democratic seats are up for election. Of these, in 5 of them, the Democrats are a shoo-in (CT, MD, HI, NY (Schumer) and VT). Of the remaining 13 seats, 2 of them are definitely very marginal (NY(Gillibrand) and OR). Only 7 have a good chance of going Republican since they have a probability of over 50%. The problem is that all of the remaining 4 states are blue states. Still Senate seats are much more unpredictable than House seats. Personality and name id are far more important so it all comes down to Republican candidate recruitment.

Since the Republicans have failed to get Pataki to run in New York against Gillibrand, that seat has dropped into the marginal group. The failure to get Thompson to run in Wisconsin has dropped that seat from a good chance into the toss-up category. Washington is already in the toss-up category but if Rossi runs, it will move up into the good chance category. Without Rossi we project that the Republicans will gain 7 seats. Since the Republicans only have 41 seats, they would need to pick up 3 more seats to gain control of the Senate and that assumes they will not lose any of their current seats.

Before the Massachusetts results, the hope of the Republicans gaining control of the Senate was not very good. Now it is a possibility. Everything depends on what happens in California, Illinois, Washington, and Wisconsin. If 3 of these go to the Republicans, they will gain control of the Senate to match the excellent chance they have of gaining control of the House.

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